Tropical Storm Rafael is approaching hurricane intensity as it heads toward Cuba and the Cayman Islands

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — Tropical Storm Rafael strengthened to near hurricane intensity Tuesday evening as it barreled toward the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where it was expected to strike as a hurricane.

The storm was 25 miles (45 kilometers) southeast of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday after passing Jamaica, where little damage was reported. According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, the storm gained speed with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 km/h) and was moving northwest at 15 mph (24 km/h). Hurricane winds begin at speeds of 74 miles per hour.

The center said it expected “steady to rapid intensification” over the next 24 hours. It was expected to pass over or past the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening and land in western Cuba on Wednesday.

“Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it passes near the Cayman Islands and will continue to strengthen before hitting Cuba,” the center said.

The U.S. State Department issued an advisory for Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, offering departure flights for non-essential personnel and American citizens and advising others to “reconsider travel to Cuba due to the potential impacts of Tropical Storm Rafael.”

Meanwhile, on social media Tuesday morning, Cuban Civil Defense urged Cubans to prepare as quickly as possible because if the storm makes landfall, “it is important to stay where you are.” The day before, authorities said they had issued an evacuation order for 37,000 people in Cuba’s far east, Guantanamo province, due to bad weather.

A hurricane warning was in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila, as well as the lower and central Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge and Dry Tortugas. In Jamaica, the warning was lifted after the storm passed the west coast. A tropical storm warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camagüey and Las Tunas.

“The storm is currently in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that is quite conducive to strengthening,” the hurricane center said.

In the Cayman Islands, officials closed schools and government offices and urged residents to prepare. As the storm approached, long lines were reported at grocery stores.

The storm is bad news for Cuba, which is still struggling to recover from Hurricane Oscar devastated the island about two weeks ago after it made landfall in eastern Cuba, killing at least six people. The storm also coincided with a widespread power outage on the island.

Meteorologists warned that Rafael would trigger heavy rains in the western Caribbean, which could cause flooding and mudslides in parts of Cuba and the Cayman Islands.

Heavy rains were also expected to spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern United States during the middle to late part of the week. The Hurricane Center predicted storm surges in Florida could reach 1 to 3 feet in Dry Tortugas and 1 to 2 feet in the Lower Florida Keys. A few tornadoes were also expected over the Keys and southwestern mainland Florida on Wednesday.

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season would likely be well above average, with 17 to 25 named storms. The forecast called for up to 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.