Tropical Storm Rafael is forming in the Caribbean and is expected to develop into a hurricane

by Junna Base November 5, 2024

A disturbance in the Caribbean strengthened into Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday afternoon, which is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Rafael, formerly known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, formed Sunday. According to the National Hurricane Center, as of 4 a.m. ET Tuesday, it was located about 105 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and moving northwest at about 13 mph.

“A turn toward the northwest with some more acceleration is expected over the next few days,” the center said in its update on the storm at 10 p.m. ET.

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and will be the 11th hurricane if it continues to strengthen as expected. The season lasts until November 30th, but peak activity is usually around September 10th.

The storm system is expected to approach the U.S. later in the week, the hurricane center said, and a tropical storm warning was issued Monday afternoon for the lower and central Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas. Parts of Florida and adjacent areas in the Southeast could see heavy rain by mid- to late week, although NHC forecasters said it was too early to make predictions about the impact on the Gulf Coast.

A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban government has upgraded all areas previously covered by hurricane warnings to hurricane warning status, meaning hurricane conditions are likely in 36 hours, the hurricane center said.

Havana is among the areas under a hurricane warning, the center said.

Meteorologists expect the weather system to move near Jamaica late Monday and then move near or over the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, where it may approach or reach hurricane intensity. It is then expected to approach Cuba on Wednesday.

The hurricane center’s latest forecast cone, which has some uncertainty, calls for Rafael to pass over the western reaches of Cuba on Wednesday afternoon or evening.

“Rafael is expected to become a hurricane in the northwest Caribbean near the Cayman Islands and will strengthen before making landfall in Cuba,” the hurricane center said in an overnight forecast discussion on Monday.

As of Monday morning, meteorologists at the NHC said the chance of the storm becoming a hurricane in the next 48 hours was “close to 100%.”

Rafael is expected to drop 3 to 6 inches of rain across much of the western Caribbean, with up to 9 inches in some areas. The heaviest rainfall is expected in Jamaica.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica Monday evening, and a storm surge of up to 3 feet is expected in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, the NHC said. Flooding and mudslides could also occur in parts of Jamaica and Cuba.

This hurricane season has proven to be active. Parts of the Southeast are still reeling from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which struck two weeks apart in late September and early October.

Meteorologists predicted an exceptionally busy hurricane season, due in part to record-high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.

Experts at Colorado State University, a prominent hurricane forecasting center, said they expected a “hyperactive season” this year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast eight to 13 hurricanes and 17 to 25 named storms – the highest number the agency had ever forecast in its annual report in May.

Rafael is the 10th named storm since September 24, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach. This makes the ten named storms of the 2024 season between September 24th and November 4th the most common during this period.

According to the NHC, in an average Atlantic hurricane season there are 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes (classified as Category 3 or higher).

Marlene Lenthang