UFC Fight Night: Expert tips and best bets for Magny vs. Prates

Welterweight star Neil Magny and rising contender Carlos Prates meet Saturday night in the main event of UFC Fight Night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas (7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4:00 p.m. on ESPN+).

Magny is 1-1 in two fights this year, with a win over Mike Malott in January and a loss to Michael Morales in August. Prates is undefeated in the UFC and has a 3-0 record since his promotion debut in February. Both fighters are not listed in the ESPN welterweight rankings.

Brett Okamoto spoke with veteran MMA coach and ESPN analyst Din Thomas to get his take on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis to the card on the main event and other interesting bets he likes.

Editor’s Note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Welterweight: Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates

Din Thomas, experienced MMA trainer and analyst

How Magny wins: Magny needs a classic Magny performance here. He has to control the range and stay out of danger until he can get to the clinch and wrestle this guy against the fence. He needs to wear Prates out and use that wrestling pressure. Maybe get a takedown and use that to show some fatigue to Prates. If he has a tired man in front of him, Magny can do whatever he wants, but until then I wouldn’t even throw punches if he has Prates on the fence. Simply manipulate his body and force Prates to hold the weight in different ways.

This is how Prates wins: Stay outside and find these openings. I like his accuracy, but because he’s so accurate, he doesn’t throw much – which might help Magny in this case because Magny doesn’t get overwhelmed. But Prates should apply pressure and do a lot of feints because Magny will react and start flowing backwards and that’s where he will be exposed. This guy will simply slip and attack Magny as he moves forward.

X factor: I don’t know how good Prates is locally. Maybe he’ll be great and beat Magny to the ground. Or maybe he’s really bad and Magny doesn’t just have to dress him, he’ll be able to subdue him. I just haven’t seen enough of it to know.

Forecast: Prates knocks Magny out within two rounds.

Betting analysis

Odds are correct at time of publication. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.

Parker: I swear on winning by knockout. Magny has an endless gas tank and is good everywhere, but not great. We saw Ian Machado tear Garry’s legs apart and Morales finish him efficiently in his last fight. If Magny can’t put Prates in his place quickly, he could face another knockout defeat against Prates.

Parker’s best bets for the rest of the card

Strawweight: Luana Pinheiro vs. Gillian Robertson

Robertson wins from distance. Since Pinheiro suffered two defeats in a row until the end, she will try not to lose her place in the UFC roster. Unfortunately, she takes on an up-and-coming Robertson. Pinheiro is probably the better striker on her feet, but as soon as things go south for her she tends to give up. Against Robertson, I expect this to happen early in the fight. Look for Robertson to use her striking to set up her wrestling. As soon as the fight hits the ground, the end is near for Pinheiro.

Middleweight: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Reinier de Ridder

De Ridder wins. King of the Apex Meerschaert returns to take on UFC newcomer de Ridder. We all know how Meerschaert performs. He is put under pressure in the first round, and when his opponent freaks out due to numerous missed throws, Meerschaert turns things around and takes the win. However, this time I don’t think it will happen. A former two-division champion with One Championship, De Ridder is versatile and has a gas tank to support his abilities. On the feet it’s not even close. De Ridder will have a big striking advantage and his black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu will help him avoid submission attempts from Meerschaert.

Welterweight: Charles Radtke vs. Matthew Semelsberger

Radtke wins. Until his last fight, a loss to Prates, Radtke was on a two-fight winning streak. Now he gets the chance to get back on the winning list when he takes on Semelsberger. Semelsberger has to accept his third defeat in a row. Semelsberger, once a promising candidate, appears to have lost his mojo, and that could be a problem against Radtke.

In his last fight against Preston Parsons, Semelsberger was defeated at will, and I believe the same will happen against Radtke. Unless he lands a massive right-hander, Semelsberger has shown in his last three fights that he lacks a plan and that his game has not evolved. Radtke should be able to surpass him and get back in the win column.