Weather for November 13th: Cold day and necessary rain for tomorrow, plus a new tropical storm is expected

November 13, 2024

Wednesday morning report

We have a cold start to a chilly day that will once again bring us sunshine and dry weather. We desperately need rain and another round is coming. This could bring us about 1/2 to 1 inch across much of the region over the course of tomorrow.

The other story is the ongoing tropical season. A new storm is expected to develop in the Caribbean this weekend. Currently identified as Invest 99L, the next tropical storm name is Sara. It is expected to become a hurricane and could hit Florida next week. Some of this moisture could also benefit us later.

Temperatures at 6 a.m

Very cool start to the day.

Morning surface weather

High pressure is under control with clear skies and light winds. The core of the cool air settles.

The next storm system is developing in the Central Plains and will arrive in the eastern United States tomorrow.

Afternoon temperatures

The core of the cool air remains despite the sunshine.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY, November 13th

Sunrise at 6:48 a.m

Sunset at 4:53 p.m

Normal low in Baltimore: 37°F

record temperature of 22°F in 1911; 2019

Normal high temperature in Baltimore: 59°F

Record 77ºF in 1955

Baltimore Drought Update

Precipitation down -6.94 inches since September 1st

This is almost equal to our deficit just before our recent rainfall.

Yes, we can dry out quickly and the statewide burn bans will remain in place.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14TH

COOL DAY: Increasing cloud cover with rain arriving in metropolitan areas in the afternoon.

Morning lows

Afternoon highs

RAIN FORECAST

Storm forecast for Thursday morning through Friday evening

Radar simulation:

NAM 3 km 9:00 a.m. THU to 7:00 a.m. FRI

Snapshots

Thursday morning

Early arrival over the mountains could result in sleet over 2,000 feet.

Thursday afternoon

It will rain in the metropolitan areas during the afternoon.

Thursday evening

Rain will be steady and moderate overnight.

Friday morning

The day may begin with moderate to heavy rain in southern Maryland and southeastern VA, but end elsewhere in our region. The day will remain partly sunny with changing clouds.

Precipitation potential

Moderate to heavy rain will fall over the mountains. The low pressure track through Virginia will bring heavier rain to the south and less rain north into central Pennsylvania.

TROPICAL VIEW

The National Hurricane Center has identified Invest 99L as the system expected to develop. The chance of this becoming a tropical storm within the next 48 hours is 80%. If so, the next name on the list is Sara.

Model prediction tracks

The general expectation is for this to round the corner near Cancun and pass through South Florida early next week. It’s TOO EARLY to give details. We need a central, organized low plot to get a better handle on how this will behave.

Model forecast intensity

There is good evidence that the environment supports growth to hurricane strength.

Forecast animation: ECMWF model

Next Tuesday November 19th to Friday November 22nd

I must point out that this is only a solution. I wanted to show how the track could interact with another system and lead to more rain in the Mid-Atlantic by the end of next week.

7 day forecast

After our rain, Friday will start to clear up and then lead us into a sunny and mild weekend.

Next week, the track of “Sara” could contribute to more rain later in the week.

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REPEATING MY MESSAGE ON THE TOPIC OF LEGEND

I understand that there are some spelling and grammatical errors, as well as occasional other errors. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I may miss. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out about it in my sophomore year at Cornell University. However, that didn’t stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.

One of my professors told me that I had made it this far without knowing it and that I shouldn’t let it be a crutch for the future. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes when proofreading myself. The automatic spell checker on my computer sometimes misses the mark and makes the problem worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. Nobody is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are correct. The “wordy” stuff can get sticky.

There was no editor to review my work when writing and have it ready to ship in a newsworthy time frame. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this website. She has made it her mission to correct typos when available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept that and perhaps prove that what you read is really mine… It’s part of my charm. #FITF