Why US allies abroad are so afraid of Trump’s second term

After Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election, “sighs of relief swept through capitals” around the world. NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel reported at the time that many abroad reacted as if “the United States had overthrown a dictator that democracy had saved America’s reputation.”

Four years later, it was no secret that many of the United States’ leading allies, especially in Europe, were desperate for Donald Trump to lose. After his victory, the grief abroad was almost as overwhelming as it was in Democratic households from coast to coast.

One of Germany’s leading news magazines featured a one-word headline under the Republican’s picture on the cover. “F—,” it read. (In the original the word was actually spelled.)

It’s worth taking a moment to understand why.

The problem isn’t just Trump’s proposed tariffs. Or his buffoons. Or his unpredictable tendencies. Or its corruption. Or his willingness to engage in legally questionable abuses. Or the extent to which his reactionary, fascist tendencies are an insult to global democracies. Or the embarrassment that will arise when Trump confronts international leaders who vilified him after he left the White House, assuming that his career could not possibly recover from his failures and alleged crimes in his first term.

The more serious problem is that they are not sure whose side he will be on in a second term.

The Wall Street Journal highlighted the fact that America’s rivals are “merging into a new global authoritarian axis.”

At first glance, the emergence of this “axis” is troubling, but even more alarming is the question of whether Trump sees its members as adversaries or as like-minded partners.

In the run-up to the US elections, Trump described the US’s international opponents as “so-called enemies” and countries that “may not be enemies”. Around the same time, the Republican publicly denigrated our South Korean allies, EU allies and Ukrainian allies – while pointing to Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and his “strongman” style as a kind of international role model worth emulating.

A few months earlier, Trump had said, “Our allies are the worst.” A month later, he added, “They are allies, but not when we need them.” They are only allies when they need something.”

Earlier this year – in the midst of the Republican presidential primary – Trump also said he was willing to “encourage” Russia to “do whatever the hell it wants” towards NATO members that haven’t spent enough on defense.

And did I mention that Trump has reportedly had several off-the-record conversations with Putin since leaving the White House? And that the Republican didn’t exactly deny that the conversations took place?

Why Americans Should Care: A world in which the United States weakens the NATO alliance and supports authoritarian and dictatorial regimes abroad effectively represents a possible collapse of the post-World War II global order and leads to global instability and unpredictability and security threats.

In recent generations, Americans have rarely prioritized foreign policy when making decisions at the ballot box. In 2024, many may regret their indifference.