Will Trump succeed in destroying US offshore wind energy projects?

ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. (AP) — Opponents of offshore wind projects expect President-elect Donald Trump to destroy an industry he has vowed to end on his first day back in the White House.

But it might not be that simple.

Many of the largest offshore wind companies are boldly anticipating the election results, promising to work with Trump and Congress to build energy projects while ignoring the new president’s often-voiced hostility toward them.

During campaign appearances, Trump railed against offshore wind energy and promised to sign an executive order blocking such projects.

“We’re going to make sure this ends on day one,” Trump said in a speech in May. “I will put it in an executive order. It will end on day one.”

“They destroy everything, they are terrible, the most expensive energy there is,” Trump said. “They’re ruining the environment, they’re killing the birds, they’re killing the whales.”

Numerous federal and state scientific authorities say there is no evidence linking preparation for offshore wind energy to a spate of whale deaths on the U.S. East Coast in recent years. Turbines are known to kill shorebirds, but the industry and regulators say there are guidelines in place to mitigate damage to the environment.

Trump has railed that offshore wind turbines are spoiling the views from a golf course he owns in Scotland. But numerous environmental groups say the real reason he opposes offshore wind energy is his support for the fossil fuel industry.

According to the American Clean Power Association, nearly 65 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity is under development in the U.S., enough to power more than 26 million homes, and some turbines are already running in several states.

Projects currently in operation include the Block Island Wind Farm in Rhode Island, the Coastal Virginia offshore wind pilot project and the South Fork Wind Farm about 35 miles (56 kilometers) east of Montauk Point on New York’s Long Island.

Trump is unlikely to kill these projects, but he could have a greater impact on those still in the planning stages, debate participants say.

Bob Stern, who led an office at the U.S. Department of Energy responsible for environmental protection during the Ford, Carter and Reagan administrations, said Trump could get Congress to pass the tax credits provided in the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act Reduce or eliminate offshore wind energy. These loans are an essential part of the financing of many offshore wind projects.

Stern, who leads the New Jersey anti-offshore wind group Save LBI, said Trump could also issue executive orders banning further offshore leases and revoking approval of already approved contracts, while at the same time pushing Congress to change federal laws that ensure greater protection for marine mammals.

The president-elect can also appoint heads of agencies involved in offshore wind regulation who are hostile to or less supportive of it.

Opponents of offshore wind, many of them Republicans, were excited after the election, saying they fully expected Trump to end the industry.

“I believe this is a turning point for the offshore wind industry in America,” said Robin Shaffer, president of Protect Our Coast NJ, one of the most vocal anti-offshore wind groups on the East Coast. “They have been supported by Democratic-led governments at the federal and state levels for many years. For this industry, (Tuesday’s) results will bring much stronger headwinds than before.”

But Tina Zappile, director of the Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University in New Jersey, noted that Trump’s Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke expressed strong support for offshore wind in 2018. And while the president-elect has sharply criticized the technology, she predicted he won’t just let it go away.

“Offshore wind appears to be at stake – Trump has explicitly said he would fix this on day one – but if the economics of offshore wind align with his overall strategies to bring manufacturing back to America and energy to win… “Regardless, his administration is likely to slowly back away from that assertion,” she said in an interview. “Offshore wind energy may be temporarily impacted, but its long-term prospects in the U.S. are unlikely to be affected.”

Commercial fishermen in Maine said they hope the Trump administration will roll back policies designed to help build and approve offshore wind projects, saying regulators have tried to “future-proof” the industry against policy changes . Jerry Leeman, CEO of the New England Fishermen’s Stewardship Association, called on Trump to reverse his commitment to install 30 gigawatts of offshore wind energy by 2030.

The offshore wind industry is taking an optimistic stance and promising to work with Trump, his political allies. National and New Jersey wind industry associations, as well as several offshore wind developers, including Atlantic Shores and Denmark-based Orsted, issued similarly worded statements highlighting terms likely to be attractive to Republicans, including job creation economic development and national security.

“By combining the strengths of all domestic energy resources, the Trump administration can advance a vibrant, secure and clean economy,” Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, said in a statement. “We are committed to working with the Trump-Vance administration and the new Congress to continue this great American success story.”

But few Republicans were in a welcoming mood after the election. New Jersey Rep. Paul Kanitra listed the largest offshore wind companies in a Facebook post and said: “It’s time to pack your bags and escape the Jersey Shore, our marine life, fishing industry and beautiful beaches. “

Kanitra said he was looking forward to “seeing your stock prices go down.” And that started to happen.

Share prices of European offshore wind companies, many of which are planning or building projects on the U.S. East Coast, plunged amid fears that the new administration would try to slow or end such projects. Orsted closed down almost 14% on Wednesday and has lost 11% in the last five days. Turbine maker Vestas Wind Systems lost almost 24% over the same period.

Rep. Jeff Van Drew, a Republican from New Jersey, hosted Trump at a rally earlier this year where Trump again pledged to eliminate offshore wind energy.

“We are currently working out the details of what this will look like when he takes office again in January,” VanDrew said. “President Trump is a good friend of New Jersey and he understands the devastating impact these projects will have on our communities.”